Nusadana: TRADE on the OSK will run Quietly this week
Thin TRADE on the move strengthened Monday at the close yesterday, and closed up nearly 2pts and close on level 3, 770.2 (+ 0.05%). Some stock market movers for the day it is ASII, UNVR, the BMRI, and GGRM SMGR. While the ballast TRADE is TLKM, ADRO, INTP, BBCA, and Earth. This increase was at his back, then follow by enter foreign inflow into the TRADE, by doing a net Buy Rp 206 Billion, with most shares are purchased, the BMRI, ASII, BMRI SMGR and PGAS. Value and Volume of trading was relatively thin trade declined by $ 3.3 trillion in value and Volume of 9.2 million lots. While from regional, stock-exchange Asia also closed the negative of the weakened exposed-induced decrease in European rating, with the Nikkei closed down-1.26%, the Hang Seng-1.18%, and KOSPI-+ 3.43%.
At the close last night, a US exchange and thin with the Dow Eropamelemah-0.84%, FTSE-0.60%, and DAX-0.54%. While of commodities, Oil WTI is still below the average price for a month now with closure on USD/brl 58.3 and CPO rose to the top again and close it at level USD3,020 (+ 1.21%).
Trading Idea
Indofood (INDF): after rose from Rp5,000 to get to level prices touched Rp6,800 in August yesterday. Since the end of August, continue to fall until the INDF got to hit the lowest point in Rp4,150, and his current price INDF is Rp4,575 (16 Dec). Stock prices throughout the year 2011 INDF since Jan until Friday closing yesterday (! 6 Dec) relatively flat despite briefly rising to Rp6,800. Some of the negative sentiment that had sentiment pushing down stocks INDF among others: regional Sentiment, rising prices of raw materials, competition in the industry, his flour prices down, and down his (CPO) market share of instant noodles in the country. Currently, the Sales contribution is still dominated by Bogasari INDF (30%), ICBP (23.9%), Oil (25%). While in the Operating profit, CPO contributing 43%, 17%, and Bogasari ICBP 24.0%. Digeluti business is currently still very INDF prospective, but sentiments were mentioned above affect its share price movements. Until the end of 2011, we see growth potential margin of bogasari saw his wheat prices down from USD 6.8/bushel in 3Q11 become bushel or USD 3.5/down by 12%, and for 2012 we have forecast growth of 11.8% revenue hingaa. Until recently we still recommend to BUY with a target price in the INDF Rp7,500 reflect on the PE12f and PBV12f 9.2 x and 1.6 x. Up to yesterday's closing, the INDF traded at the level of PE 5.0 x and 1.3 x PBV, still cheaper than shares similar industry.
Fresh from OSK: target price will SSIA offered up to Rp 1,000 after a plan to increase the farm industry issuers they amounted to 1, 300ha, and targeting revenue of $ 1.1 trillion in 2012.
Source Alfaria (AMRT) – the Company visit: here are some points from the results of our meetings with the management:
2012 issuer plans to open new outlets and 800 alfamart 3 Distribution Centers. To 800 of these outlets are planned for opening outside Jabodetabek and outside Java. While 3 Distributin Center to be opened will be located in Bogor, Medan and Jember. Market share rose from 15.5% AMRT at 16.7% in 9M10 to be 9M11. Growth potential is huge, Alfamart was still there is currently no outlet alfamart in Borneo. While there are only Lampung on Sumatra and in Palembang, In Sulawesi there's only outlet in Makassar alfamart.
AMRT also plans to increase their margins by selling more non-food products. Current non-food products has a margin of 11.4%, greater than the product of a 13.6%.
For FY11, the company also is targeting an increase in revenues of 45% or $ Rp360 Billion. But until the new print 9M11, company income amounting to Rp226 billion, or 59% of the total target for 2011. As for 2012, the company is planning to print the increase in profits by 25%
Current diperdagangakan in the premium price AMRT, reflect on the PE12f of 18.4 x, while the average industrial company for PE12f is as large as 12.1 x. We see that deserve diperdagangakan on AMRT price premium to see ROE they were very high, by 22.0% much higher than lbih ROE average industry that only amounted to 12.0 x.
Target Price: AMRT Rp4,525 (Bloomberg consensus)
Technical View: TRADE on these days tend to be mixed up with an estimate of the support to the closest in level 3, 763.4 and resistance at level 3, 793.2. Indicators in General still tends to be a positive move, but with no trading yesterday as TRADE on the last level 3, above, is estimated to be kenaikkan 778.3 will run slow this week with an estimated resistance strong this week at level 3, 808.09. Stock pick for today include:
1. Global Mediacom (BMTR), ACC. Buy
2. Charoen Phokphand Indonesia (CPIN), ACC. Buy
3. Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN), ACC. Buy
